JPMorgan Chase Institute 2018 Inaugural Conference on Economic Research
August 29, 2018
Data is vital to understand and solve economic challenges. From household cash flow volatility and small business vitality to our complex healthcare system and the future of work, data analysis has the potential to better inform policy makers. On June 21, 2018, the JPMorgan Chase Institute convened academics, policy makers, and other experts for our inaugural Conference on Economic Research. This daylong event marked the Institute’s three year anniversary and served as an opportunity to discuss key Institute research themes. The insights that follow highlight some of the research presentations and dialogues from the conference.
JPMorgan Chase Institute
“One of the biggest anchoring themes of the JPMorgan Chase Institute research is cash flow and spending volatility, which builds off our unique household income and spending views,” noted Diana Farrell, JPMorgan Chase Institute President and CEO. Income and spending volatility are widespread among U.S. households.footnote 1 Even predictable cash flow fluctuations matter in real ways, be it an inflow from a tax refundfootnote 2,footnote 3 or a dip in income from unemployment benefits expiring.footnote 4 This underscores the importance of having a working capital buffer to protect against typical, observable changes.
New York University
Evidence suggests that households do respond to saving-stimulating policies, such as India’s policy change to increase income tax exemption limits on mortgage principal and interest.footnote 5 While this research offers evidence that the right incentives can spur household savings, continued analysis of the interconnectedness of volatility with income inequality and race is critical. “There is a difference between wealthier households in terms of the resources available to deal with volatility but also exposure to volatility. The same households that have less protection and lack the ability to deal with big shocks are the ones that face more instability,” emphasized Jonathan Morduch, Professor at New York University Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. This is particularly true among womenfootnote 6 and minority populations.footnote 7
Swiss National Bank
Housing finance policies also have varying impacts on consumers at different income levels. Data analysis following the Federal Housing Administration’s decision to cut mortgage insurance premiums shows that a decrease in the effective monthly cost of a mortgage led to a material increase in home purchases, particularly among lower income borrowers.footnote 8 The Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) was introduced during the 2009 recession and helped borrowers with a high loan-to-value mortgage refinance their mortgage and reduce their monthly payments. According to research from Andreas Fuster, Economic Advisor at the Swiss National Bank, “Households that were able to refinance through HARP were less likely to default and used their savings to pay down debt or increase consumption.”footnote 9 Further, the effects were larger for borrowers with lower credit quality and higher credit utilization rates, suggesting that liquidity constraints are an important driver of mortgage default. Institute data also show that mortgage default and delinquency were correlated with income loss, regardless of income level, debt-to-income ratio, or home equity.footnote 10
Institute research on small businesses shows that financial volatility is not limited to households. Small businesses with more irregular cash flow patterns are less likely to survive.footnote 11 Evidence from government contractors corroborates this finding: accelerating payments to contractors significantly increased their employment and survival rates.footnote 12 Separately, research measuring the size of the supply chain shows that it plays a key role in the economy.footnote 13 “The supply chain is large, contains high-wage jobs, and has the majority of STEM jobs and patents,” noted Karen G. Mills, Senior Fellow at Harvard Business School. In particular, Mills noted the greater significance companies in the services supply chain play in the economy than is often attributed. Other perspectives empowered by administrative data paint a more inclusive view of the small business sector, countering some common stereotypes about entrepreneurs: many more grow their firms organically rather than with external finance,footnote 11 and most are in their forties, older than typically portrayed.footnote 14
New York University
University of Maryland
Administrative data have also proven to be crucial when examining the labor market, particularly with the growth of the gig economy. Importantly, as Katharine Abraham pointed out, “While survey data suggest a decline in self-employment, which is where participation in the gig economy would be showing up, administrative data sources show that there has been a considerable increase in self-employment.” According to Institute data on the Online Platform Economy, for the majority of participants, online platforms serve as a secondary source of income, often helping offset dips in traditional income sources.footnote 15,footnote 16 Arun Sundararajan, Professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, explained that “low barriers to enter flexible work arrangements increase access for consumers, including those who may have been driven out of a job.” Experiments have also shown that this greater flexibility is valued by gig economy participants,footnote 17,footnote 18 which can blur the distinction between leisure and work. For instance, some companies are adopting flexible work arrangements, such as compensating employees who deliver a package on the way home from the office. This poses interesting considerations for the future of work.
Healthcare research also reveals sensitivity to cash flow dynamics. Research presented by Amar Hamoudi, Consumer Senior Research Lead, JPMorgan Chase Institute shows that “U.S. consumers wait until they have a major cash inflow, such as a tax refund, to seek and pay for healthcare services. This implies that liquidity is an important factor influencing healthcare demand.”footnote 3 On the supply side, evidence from Medicaid insurance providers showed that the tools of managed care can be effective at reducing healthcare spending and can significantly change the total care utilization of their customers.footnote 19 However, it comes at the cost of consumer satisfaction, especially for those who consume more healthcare. With rising healthcare costs, improving value for money will require policy innovation on both the supply side and demand side.
Finally, research focused on U.S. cities reveals the significant potential – and limitations – of using data to inform local policy making. Not all cities have the resources to process and interpret data. For those that do, the heterogeneity of cities limits the effectiveness of external benchmarking. It is important for local leaders to set clear goals before diving into data analysis and then employ data that appropriately align with these goals. Indicators that are relatively easier to measure can easily become misaligned with the goals policymakers are actually seeking. This is especially true when assessing economic and racial inclusion. Christina Plerhoples Stacy, Senior Research Associate at the Urban Institute, cautioned that “a city can worsen on inequality while improving on inclusion, and vice-versa, or [seemingly] reduce inequality through displacement of low income residents.”footnote 20
We thank all of the presenters and attendees who participated in the Institute’s inaugural Economic Research Conference and look forward to continued engagement.
The views expressed by our guest speakers are independent of the organizations they represent.
- Farrell, Diana and Fiona Greig. 2015. “Weathering Volatility: Big Data on the Financials Ups and Downs of U.S. Individuals.” JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Baugh, Brian, Itzhak Ben-David, Hoonsuk Park, and Jonathan A. Parker. 2018. “A Test of Consumption Smoothing and Liquidity Constraints: Spending Responses to Paying Taxes and Receiving Refunds.” Working paper.
- Farrell, Diana, Fiona Greig, and Amar Hamoudi. 2018. "Deferred Care: How Tax Refunds Enable Healthcare Spending." JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Farrell, Diana, Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, and Pascal Noel. 2016. “Recovering from Job Loss: The Role of Unemployment Insurance.” JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Agarwal, Sumit, Souphala Chomsisengphet, Pulak Ghosh, and Man Zhang. 2017. “Consumption and Saving Response to Income Tax Exemption Policy: Evidence from India.”
- Farrell, Diana and Fiona Greig. 2017. “The Gender Gap in Financial Outcomes: The Impact of Medical Payments.” JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Darity, Sandy, Darrick Hamilton, Bradley Hardy, and Jonathan Morduch. 2018. “Wealth inequality, income volatility, and race in the US.” Working paper
- Bhutta, Neil and Daniel Ringo. 2017. “The Effect of Interest Rates on Home Buying: Evidence from a Discontinuity in Mortgage Insurance Premiums.”
- Abel, Joshua and Fuster Andreas. 2018. “How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP” FRB of New York Staff Report No. 841.
- Farrell, Diana, Kanav Bhagat, Peter Ganong, and Pascal Noel. 2017. "Mortgage Modifications after the Great Recession: New Evidence and Implications for Policy." JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Farrell, Diana, Christopher Wheat, and Chi Mac. 2018. "Growth, Vitality, and Cash Flows: High-Frequency Evidence from 1 Million Small Businesses." JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Barrot, Jean-Noel and Ramana Nanda. 2017. “Can Paying Firms More Quickly Affect Aggregate Employment?” Harvard Business School Entrepreneurial Management Working Paper No. 17-004.
- Delgado, Mercedes and Karen Mills. 2017. “A New Categorization of the U.S. Economy: The Role of Supply Chain Industries in Innovation and Economic Performance.” MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5241-16.
- Azoulay, Pierre, Benjamin F. Jones, Kim J. Daniel, and Javier Miranda. 2018. “Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship.” NBER Working Paper No. w24489.
- Farrell, Diana and Fiona Greig. 2016. “The Online Platform Economy: Has Growth Peaked?” JPMorgan Chase Institute.
- Koustas, Dmitri. 2018. “Consumption Insurance and Multiple Jobs: Evidence from Rideshare Drivers.” Working paper.
- Sundararajan, Arun. 2016. “The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism” MIT University Press
- Hall, Jonathan V. and Alan B. Krueger. 2016. “An Analysis of the Labor Market for Uber’s Driver-Partners in the United States.” ILR Review, vol 71(3), pages 705-732.
- Geruso, Michael, Timothy Layton, and Jacob Wallace. 2018. “Are All Managed Care Plans Created Equal? Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment in Medicaid.” Working paper
- Greene, Solomon, Brady Meixell, Erika C. Poethig, Tanaya Srini, and Christina Plerhoples Stacy. 2018. “Inclusive Recovery in US Cities.” Urban Institute.
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