Research

Housing affordability worsens in Atlanta, especially in lower-income and suburban areas

November 19, 2025

Introduction

Access to affordable housing is a cornerstone of thriving communities—yet in Atlanta, like most cities in the U.S., rising costs and limited supply have made homeownership increasingly out of reach for many families. Homeownership costs rose over 60 percent relative to incomes, as the monthly mortgage expense for would-be homebuyers increased from 25 percent of median income in 2019 to 41 percent in 2025.1

This report uses granular data to dive deeper into changing housing affordability across the Atlanta metro area.2 The analysis compares rising housing costs with median worker income gains over 2014–24 to highlight financial challenges facing would-be first-time homebuyers. Notably, lower-income areas and the suburbs have experienced the highest increases in home prices relative to incomes for those 25–44-years-old, the age group covering most first-time homebuyers.

Finding 1:  In Atlanta, housing affordability has declined most in the suburbs and exurbs over 2019–24, mirroring a nationwide pattern in large cities but with a larger decline in affordability.

Atlanta, like many other large metro areas across the country, experienced significantly larger home price increases in their suburbs and exurbs than in their urban centers, a lasting consequence of pandemic-era shifts in housing demand amid supply constraints.3 Figure 1 shows home price increases relative to median income growth among the 25-44-year-old population over 2019–24 across urban-rural groups, comparing Atlanta with other large cities.4 A map in the Appendix depicts the Urban-Rural breakdown of the Atlanta metro area. The decline in affordability in its suburbs and exurbs were larger than other cities with metro populations over 5 million. In Atlanta’s dense urban center, median incomes for younger workers rose by more than home prices, but affordability still worsened when considering the role of higher mortgage rates—which applies across areas.5

Figure 1: Housing affordability changes across urban-rural and income spectrums show affordability worsening most in the suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta.

A bar chart showing both five-year average Zillow home price growth and age-adjusted median income growth for 25 to 44 year-olds from 2019 through 2024, by urbanicity classification, for the MSA of Atlanta and the average of Other MSA’s Over Five Million. For both Atlanta and Other MSA’s Over Five Million, the figure shows a bar for four urbanicity classifications from left to right: Dense Urban Core, Urban, Suburban and Rural/Exurbs, both the Zillow five-year price growth (Solid Bar) and the five-year average growth in age-adjusted median incomes for 25 to 44 year-olds (Faint Bar), with the Faint Bar behind the Solid Bar, slightly wider, and with a black dotted line at the top of the bar. The Solid Bars for Atlanta, read approximately: 29 percent for Dense Urban Core, 42 percent for Urban, 61 percent for Suburban and, 65 percent for Rural/Exurbs. The Faint Bars for Atlanta, read approximately: 42 percent for Dense Urban Core, 42 percent for Urban, 43 percent for Suburban, and 41 percent for Rural/Exurbs. The Solid Bars for the Other MSA’s Over Five Million, read approximately: 17 percent for Dense Urban Core, 36 percent for Urban, 48 percent for Suburban and 48 percent Rural/Exurbs. The Faint Bars for the city of Atlanta, read approximately: 45 percent for Dense Urban Core, 43 percent for Urban, 43 percent for Suburban, and 41 percent for Rural/Exurbs.

Figure 2 provides a geographic view into this trend, showing changes home prices relative to the median income change of residents at a ZIP-code-level across the Atlanta metro area. Over 2014–19, changes in affordably were mixed geographically—with neighborhoods just south of the downtown center experiencing a decline in affordability relative to those just north of the center, while most other areas were somewhere in between. The pattern over 2019–24 resembles a pronounced “donut effect,” described in academic research (Ramani and Bloom, 2024).

Figure 2: Areas far from Atlanta’s city center experienced a deeper decline in affordability over 2019–24, a distinct pattern relative to the prior five-year period.

This is a figure with two zip code maps of the Chicago MSA, with Blue-Red color-scales that shows the ratio of five-year average Zillow home price growth over age-adjusted median income growth for 25-to-44 year-olds (the Affordability Stress Ratio). The left map shows the Affordability Stress Ratios between 2014 and 2019, and the right map shows the Affordability Stress Ratios between 2019 and 2024, with Blue indicating zip codes with improving Affordability Stress Ratios and Red zip codes indicating worsening Affordability Stress Ratios. The boundaries of the urbanicity definitions are drawn for both maps, and they are: Dark Solid for Dense Urban Core, Dark Dotted for Urban, Dotted for Suburban and Light Solid for Rural/Exurbs. On the left map, the darkest Blue zip codes are in the Urban region just northwest of the Dense Urban Core, most of the Dense Urban Core is light Blue. The Suburban region directly north and slightly east of the Urban region are also Blue. The darkest Red regions are in the southwest of the Urban region, with the darkest zip inside the Dense Urban Core. The remaining areas in the Suburban and the Rural/Exurbs are all a very light Red. On the right map, the darkest Blue zip codes are in the Dense Urban Core, with a few adjacent zip codes in the Urban and Suburban regions a very light Blue. The rest of the map is all Red, with zip-codes closest to the Dense Urban Core being slightly lighter than the rest of the metro area.

Finding 2: Housing affordability has declined most in lower-income areas of Atlanta over the past decade.

Figure 3 shows the extent to which home prices have outstripped median income growth, broken out by ZIP-code-level average income. Over 2014–19 (shown in the first panel), affordability worsened notably more in lower-income areas. This dynamic hit the lower-income parts of both urban and suburban ZIP codes, with some areas seeing home price increases in excess of income exceeding 50 percent. Since 2019, the differences by income segment have been less pronounced but still modestly extended the 2014–19 trend. Since those with lower incomes have fewer options in the housing market, the cumulative changes over the past ten years represent a challenge that disproportionately affects more financial vulnerable households. In particular, for those seeking to become first-time homebuyers, suburban neighborhoods with low-to-moderate average incomes have become increasingly out of reach.

Figure 3: Decline in affordability in lower-income areas over 2019–24 compounds a pronounced trend disadvantaging those areas prior to the pandemic.

This is a scatter plot of Atlanta MSA zip codes with the percent change in the ratio of five-year average Zillow home price growth over age-adjusted median income growth for 25 to 44 year-olds (the Affordability Stress Ratio), on the y-axis, and mean Per Capita Income on a logarithmic scale on the x-axis. Each zip has a bubble size based on population according to the 2020 Census, and bubbles are color coded according to the urbanicity definitions, which are: Blue for Dense Urban Core, Dark Orange for Urban, Green for Suburban, and Purple for Rural/Exurbs. The range Affordability Stress Ratios on the y-axis is approximately from 90 percent to -20 percent, and the range of logarithmic scale Per Capita Incomes is from approximately 20 thousand to 500 thousand dollars. The distribution of the bubbles follows a downward sloping, upwardly concave arc, with the left tail of the distribution is clustered between approximately 20 thousand and 35 thousand in on the x-axis, and between approximately 90 percent and 20 percent on the y-axis. The shape of this section of the distribution is a nearly vertical negatively sloping with an upwardly concavity near the bottom. The center mass of the distribution is clustered between approximately 35 thousand and 150 thousand on the x-axis, and distributed between 20 percent and -10 percent on the y-axis, and is slightly negatively sloping. The right tail of the distribution is the sparsest and extends from approximately 150 thousand to 500 thousand on the x-axis, and from -10 percent to -20 percent on the y-axis, and is slightly negatively sloping.

This is a scatter plot of Chicago MSA zip codes with the percent change in the ratio of five-year average Zillow home price growth over age-adjusted median income growth for 25 to 44 year-olds (the Affordability Stress Ratio), on the y-axis, and mean Per Capita Income on a logarithmic scale on the x-axis. Each zip has a bubble size based on population according to the 2020 Census, and bubbles are color coded according to the urbanicity definitions, which are: Blue for Dense Urban Core, Dark Orange for Urban, Green for Suburban, and Purple for Rural/Exurbs. The range Affordability Stress Ratios on the y-axis is from 35 percent to -25 percent, and the range of logarithmic scale Per Capita Incomes is from 20 thousand to 500 thousand dollars. The distribution of is slightly downward sloping and generally linear. The vast majority of the Blue Dense Urban Core bubbles are clustered between 70 thousand to 300 thousand dollars on the x-axis in a relatively flat line around -15 percent on the y-axis. Three of Blue Dense Urban Core bubbles are clustered between 20 thousand and 30 thousand on the x-axis, and between 35 and 10 on the y-axis. The Dark Orange Urban bubbles are sparsely spread between 33 thousand and 500 thousand on the x-axis, and clustered in a flat line near 0 on the y-axis. The remaining Green and Purple bubbles representing Suburban and Rural/Exurbs, respectively, are spread between 33 thousand and 150 thousand on the x-axis, and clustered in a slightly downward sloping line between 30 and -10 on the y-axis.

Appendix: Map of the Atlanta Metro Area by Urban-Rural Categories

To the bottom left a map of the state of Georgia is in grey, with the counties of the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the northwestern part of the state overlaid in faint blue. The counties of the Atlanta MSA with dark grey boundaries are set with an overlay of highways and roads. Highways are in black and run like spokes through the city with a beltway surrounding the city center, while roads in light grey crisscross the map. In addition, an overlay of the urban-rural classifications used in the analyses above are colored by zip-codes, with the Dense Urban Core shaded Purple, Urban shaded Yellow, Suburbs shaded Dark Orange, and Rural/Exurbs shaded Faint Blue. The border of eastern Fulton and western DeKalb county is shaded mostly Purple for the Dense Urban Core, and central Fulton county is shaded Yellow for Urban. Suburbs surround the Urban and Dense Urban Core areas: in clockwise order, northern Fulton county, southern Forsyth, all of Gwinnett, all of Rockdale, northern Henry, all of Clayton, northern Fayette, southern Fulton, eastern Douglas, all of Cobb, and southern Cherokee counties are all Dark Orange for Suburbs. The remaining outer counties are all faint blue for Rural/Exurbs.

Ready to learn more?

As households, businesses, and policymakers in Atlanta contend with challenging and dynamic housing affordability conditions, JPMorganChase has released a What Works brief, outlining strategies to address these critical issues.

Read the What Works brief

Glaeser, Edward and Joseph Gyourko. 2025. “America’s Housing Affordability Crisis and the Decline of Housing Supply.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/6_Glaeser-Gyourko.pdf

Ramani, Arjun and Nicholas Bloom. 2022.  “The Donut Effect of COVID-19 on Cities,” NBER Working Paper Series.

Wheat, Chris, and George Eckerd. 2025. “The Affordability Gap: Is home ownership still within reach in today’s economy?” JPMorganChase Institute. https://www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/all-topics/community-development/the-affordability-gap-is-home-ownership-still-within-reach-in-todays-economy.

We thank our research team, especially Guillaume Kasten-Sportes, for his contributions to the analysis. We are indebted to our internal partners and colleagues, who support delivery of our agenda in a myriad of ways and acknowledge their contributions to each and all releases.

This material is a product of JPMorganChase Institute and is provided to you solely for general information purposes. Unless otherwise specifically stated, any views or opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors listed and may differ from the views and opinions expressed by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS) Research Department or other departments or divisions of JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates. This material is not a product of the Research Department of JPMS. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which is provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The data relied on for this report are based on past transactions and may not be indicative of future results. J.P. Morgan assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. The opinion herein should not be construed as an individual recommendation for any particular client and is not intended as advice or recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies for a particular client. This material does not constitute a solicitation or offer in any jurisdiction where such a solicitation is unlawful.

Wheat, Chris, and George Eckerd. 2025. “Housing affordability worsens in Atlanta, especially in lower-income and suburban areas.” JPMorganChase Institute. https://www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/all-topics/community-development/housing-affordability-worsens-in-atlanta-especially-in-lower-income-and-suburban-areas

Footnotes

1.

According to the Atlanta Fed Home Ownership Afforability Monitor.

2.

Prior Institute research using the same methodology has covered the Austin, Chicago, and Columbus metro areas.

3.

Academic research has dubbed the relative fall in housing demand in dense urban cores a “donut” effect: see Ramani, Arjun and Nicholas Bloom, 2022. “The Donut Effect of COVID-19 on Cities,” NBER Working Paper Series. Academic research has called attention to zoning and permitting issues that have held down housing supply, particularly in Sunbelt suburban areas (Gyourko and Glaeser, 2025).

4.

We use similar categories as Ramani and Bloom (2022).

5.

For further information on both home prices and interest rates affect affordability, see Wheat and Eckerd (2025).

Authors

Chris Wheat

Chris Wheat

President, JPMorganChase Institute

George Eckerd

George Eckerd

Wealth and Markets Research Director, JPMorganChase Institute

Media contact
Shelby Wagenseller, 
Shelby.Wagenseller@jpmchase.com

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