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Tax Time

How Families Manage Tax Refunds and Payments

Tax Time Report Icon

Every spring more than a half trillion dollars flow into and out of the financial accounts of American families as they reconcile taxes paid against taxes owed for the prior year. Most of these flows— representing 2.5 percent of the year’s total GDP—hit families’ financial accounts during the dozen weeks of the traditional tax season from mid-February to mid-May. In previous JPMorgan Chase Institute research, we reported that out-of-pocket spending on healthcare services jumps by 60 percent in the week a tax refund is received and remains elevated for 75 days. This report builds on that research, investigating more comprehensively how families manage the positive cash flow from tax refunds and negative cash flow from tax payments. We analyze daily financial flows and balances for one million families who receive tax refunds or make tax payments, and find that tax reconciliation has a significant and long-lasting impact on spending and saving patterns of some, but not all of them.

View the Report Tax Time: How Families Manage Tax Refunds and Payment

On the Rise: Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Spending in 2017

In this new report, we describe the enhancements to, and key findings from, the updated JPMCI Healthcare-Out-of-Pocket Spending Panel that includes the first available estimates of 2017 healthcare out-of-pocket spending trends, as well as a first-ever look at year-over-year trends at the state and county level for different demographic groups. We also reflect these updates in interactive HOSP Geographic Data Visualization tool, which allows exploration of further detail and insights.

View the Report  “On the Rise” View the Data Visualization  “for HOSP”

Does the Timing of Central Bank Announcements Matter?

Swiss Franc

This follow-up report builds on FX Markets Move on Surprise News, focusing on hedge fund trading during the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) Minimum Exchange Rate policy period to highlight implications for central banks as they consider how their choices with respect to communicating policy changes might impact financial market stability.

Read the Insight about the hedge fund trading in EUR/CHF during the Minimum Exchange Rate policy period.


Estimating Family Income from Administrative Banking Data: A Machine Learning Approach

JPMorgan Chase Conference Panel

The JPMorgan Chase Institute (JPMCI) developed a machine-learning based estimate of family income to enable deeper insights and improved representation in our research. In this new report, we describe our approach and results.

Read the Insight  “JPMorgan Chase Institute 2018 Inaugural Conference on Economic Research”

Falling Behind: Bank data on the Role of Income and Savings in Mortgage Default

Income Shocks and Mortgage Default

In this follow-up research to our Mortgage Modifications after the Great Recession report, we further examine the relationship between income shocks and mortgage default, as well as the relationships between financial buffers, income, payment burden, and default rates.

Read the Report  “Falling Behind: Bank data on the Role of Income and Savings in Mortgage Default”


Spotlight: Profiles of Local Consumer Commerce

It’s time to use hard data and smart insights to address the complex problems that affect us all.

That’s why we established the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

The JPMorgan Chase Institute aims to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts, timely data and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity.

Learn more about the JPMorgan Chase Institute