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FX Markets Move on Surprise News

Institutional Investor Trading Behavior around Brexit, the US Election, and the Swiss Franc Floor

Cover of the report 'FX Markets Move on Surprise News'

In this inaugural JPMorgan Chase Institute report on financial markets, we examined three recent events that had major impacts on foreign exchange (FX) markets:

  1. The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to remove their floor on the Swiss Franc vs. Euro exchange rate (EUR/CHF): on January 15, 2015, at 9:30 a.m. GMT, the SNB abandoned its floor on the EUR/CHF exchange rate via a surprise press release. The announcement shocked the FX market—EUR/CHF dropped 12.3 percent over the next few hours.
  2. The Brexit referendum: on June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) held a referendum on whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union (EU). The “Leave” win led to an 11 percent drop in GBP/USD overnight.
  3. The 2016 US Presidential Election: On November 8, 2016, the United States (US) held its Presidential Election. The unexpected Trump victory led to an 8.3 percent rise in USD/MXN overnight.

All three events shared one important quality—they had unexpected outcomes that led to the largest one-day moves in these three exchange rates in the last 20 years—that made them ideal candidates for research aimed at building a better understanding of institutional investor trading behavior. With this research objective in mind, we examined institutional investor trades in FX markets in the days and hours leading up to, during, and after each event. We analyzed total trading volumes (a measure of trading activity) and net flows (a measure of risk transferred) across all institutional investors in our sample, and then examined net flows at the investor sector and region level. Finally, we looked at transactions within each investor type to observe within-sector variation in trading behavior.

View Our Research   about how FX Markets Move on Surprise News. View the Data Visualization   about how FX Markets Move on Surprise News.

Filing Taxes Early, Getting Healthcare Late: Insights from 1.2 Million Households

Leveraging data on 1.2 million tax refunds, we investigate variation in the timing of tax filing across socioeconomic and demographic groups, and variation in the impact of the tax refund on out-of-pocket healthcare spending.

Read the Insight  “Filing Taxes Early, Getting Healthcare Late: Insights from 1.2 Million Households”


Healthcare When It’s Needed: How to Mitigate High Costs and Deferred Care

JPMorgan Chase Healthcare Conference Panel

This recap of an Institute-led panel discussion at the 36th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference showcases key takeaways from the discussion on how to reduce total healthcare costs and help consumers receive the care they need when they need it and not just when they have the cash to pay for it.

Read the Insight  “Healthcare When It’s Needed: How to Mitigate High Costs and Deferred Care”


JPMorgan Chase Institute HOSP Geographic Data Visualization Tool

The HOSP Geographic Data Visualization Tool

Healthcare spending varied widely in the US in 2016, both across and within states. Explore the JPMCI HOSP data asset at the state, metro area, and county level with our interactive data visualization tool.

View Data Visualization of the JPMCI HOSP


Spotlight: Profiles of Local Consumer Commerce

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