New JPMorganChase Institute research on the cost of tariffs on U.S. midsize businesses

2025 has brought a wave of sweeping tariff policy changes, rapidly reshaping the landscape for U.S. trade and business. In two new reports out today, the JPMorganChase Institute explores how these recent changes to U.S. tariff policy can affect midsize businesses across the country. Midsize businesses may not have the scale or market power that larger firms have in absorbing the costs or negotiating with their suppliers. Drawing on proprietary bank data, the research provides the first comprehensive analysis of the direct costs facing midsize businesses and offers insight into how trade policy is reshaping industry risk and creating ripple effects across local economies and supply chains.

Tariffs could add billions in new costs for midsize firms, especially in key metro areas:

This report finds that the implementation of full universal tariffs announced on April 2nd could add up to $187.7 billion in direct import costs for midsize firms—more than six times the cost of earlier tariffs in place at the start of 2025. Though some reductions were announced following negotiations, current policy still leaves midsize firms facing $82.3 billion in costs. These costs are being felt across local economies in metro areas nationwide, with the steepest impacts in coastal regions and major trade hubs like Southern California, Texas, and the Northeast. The findings provide important insight for state and local leaders seeking to understand how federal trade policy may affect regional economic resilience and job stability.

Midsize businesses are overexposed to potential high-tariff countries, with the wholesale and retail sectors having the highest exposure:

This report finds that midsize businesses are disproportionately exposed to tariff hikes because they rely more heavily on imports from countries facing the highest rates—21% of their imports come from China, which is now subject to a 55% tariff. Among midsize firms, the wholesale and retail trade sectors have the highest direct exposure. Many of these operate on thin margins, so even small cost increases can lead to higher prices for customers or disruptions across local supply chains.

Together, these reports offer a clearer picture of how recent tariff changes are affecting midsize firms across industries and regions in the U.S. The findings provide critical context for policymakers weighing trade decisions and leaders working with the firms and communities most exposed to global market shifts.