Helping clients navigate global challenges

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Welcome to window on the world, a podcast from the JPMorganChase center for geopolitics. I'm your host, Derek Chollet. In about ten minutes, we'll break down our latest report, what's Happening, why it matters, and what to watch for next. I'm here today with Doctor Sarah Kapnick, head of JPMorgan's climate advisory and a coauthor of our new report on the geopolitics of energy in 2026. 

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Now, a lot has changed in the world since our last energy report in 2025. And so today, we'll go look at our new report's key findings and how the intersection of geopolitics, markets and energy has evolved. So Sarah, it's great to be with you. Thanks for joining us. And let's start with the big question. How would you capture how countries and companies are thinking about energy now versus a year ago? 

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Our report gets right to this question and it's really our central finding. Energy security is no longer only about energy supply. That was already a critical component of the energy security and our 2025 power required report. But increasingly, it's also about managing external shocks to energy systems, alternative trade routes, flexible power networks, strategic reserves and the ability to recover from disruption can be just as important as the electrons and molecules themselves. 

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So energy security is increasingly about resilience, and that means balancing affordability and reliability with the ability to withstand what comes next. And one thing that struck me working on the report is that we started with what sounds like an energy question, but pretty quickly you end up in a world of national security. Derek, that's probably a good place to bring you in. 

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Energy security has always had a geopolitical dimension, but it feels like something more fundamental has changed. How are governments now thinking about energy as an instrument of national security and state power. Yeah, so it certainly has. I mean, I think that governments increasingly see energy as part of the strategic foundations of the state. And, you know, for a long time, energy security was largely about whether you could get enough oil or gas or electricity at an affordable price. 

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And that hasn't gone away. But governments are now asking a second set of questions like, where does that energy come from? Who controls it? Can an adversary interrupt it? And how long can the system keep functioning if they do? Now Ukraine obviously accelerated the shift. Europe's experience with Russia's gas did, too. And now the Iran conflict, over the last six months, has reinforced it from another direction. 

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We're also seeing governments think differently about the physical infrastructure itself, like power plants and grids and pipelines and refineries and LNG terminals. These all increasingly have to be treated as strategic infrastructure, particularly when it comes to inexpensive drones, missiles, sabotage or cyber tools that can threaten assets worth billions. So energy policy increasingly overlaps with defense policy with industrial policy, with trade policy and national security planning. 

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But, Sarah, the interesting thing to me is that you can actually see those geopolitical vulnerabilities when you look under the hood of an energy system. So let me turn that back to you. When you're evaluating whether a country is actually resilient. What are you looking at? What tells you that one energy system can absorb a shock better than another? 

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We found that there isn't a single score that captures energy resilience because different shocks, stress different parts of the system. Instead, we look across several indicators that reveal where countries are resilient and where they're exposed. The first is dependance on imported fuels. Countries that rely heavily on energy imports are more vulnerable to wars, sanctions, shipping disruptions and geopolitical tensions. 

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The second is strategic reserves. Countries with large inventories of oil, gas or other critical materials have a cushion when the supplies are disrupted. Third is a diversity of supply and transport routes. If you rely on one supplier, one pipeline or one shipping lane, a single disruption can reverberate through the system. We also look at things like clean, firm power grid stability and the ability to manage rising demand. 

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And that's really where our c framework comes in. We think about resilience through three broad strategies. Supply your own electrification and efficiency of electrons. Supply your own means 

expanding access to domestically available energy, whether that energy is produced domestically or stockpiled. Electrification can reduce exposure to volatile global fuel markets. And efficiency of electrons is really about getting more out of the electricity system you already have. 

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There isn't one recipe for resilience. The point is to create more options so that one part of the system comes under stress. You have somewhere else to turn. And I think the Iran conflict gives us a timely, real world example of why those options matter. Derek, let me throw back to you from the geopolitical side. The Iran conflict exposes just how quickly an energy shock in one part of the world can become a strategic problem somewhere else. 

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What did this crisis tell us about the geopolitics of interdependence? Well, Sarah, I think the big lesson is that interdependence cuts both ways. It creates some enormous economic benefits in normal times, but it can also create vulnerabilities when the geopolitical environment deteriorates. And the Hormuz in the Strait of Hormuz is the obvious example. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through a very narrow piece of geography. 

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And when that becomes contested, the consequences don't stay in the Gulf, as we've seen play out. European governments start worrying about gas prices and LNG. Asian buyers start competing for cargoes. Companies rethink shipping routes. Government starts, starts looking at reserves. So energy security increasingly means understanding where those dependencies sit and who can exploit them, and what options you have when something goes wrong. 

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And so therefore, Sarah, governments obviously aren't the only ones responding to this. We've seen that companies and investors are making decisions right now about where the next generation of energy infrastructure gets built. So, Sarah, when you look across our clients, what are some of the most exciting trends you're seeing right now in energy investment and dealmaking? And I want to ask you specifically about nuclear and geothermal. 

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What's changed in those two spaces and what could they mean for energy security? We're seeing a much broader portfolio of energy investments than we were even a few years ago. Rising electricity demand, data centers, grid investment, storage generation and the need for reliable power are 

creating opportunities across the entire energy system. Two areas I'm particularly excited about are geothermal and nuclear. 

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Geothermal isn't new, but what's happening in next generation geothermal really is. Advances in drilling. Enhanced geothermal systems could make geothermal viable in many more places. And we're seeing expertise developed in the oil and gas industry applied in new ways. That matters because geothermal could potentially provide something extremely valuable, reliable, 24 over seven domestic energy that isn't dependent on the weather or continuous fuel imports. 

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Nuclear, similarly, is going through its own period of renewed interest. We're seeing governments and companies look again at conventional nuclear, but also small modular reactors and new ways of deploying nuclear power. There are still real questions around cost permitting, supply chains and commercialization, particularly for small modular reactors. But the attraction is pretty clear reliable power, a relatively small physical footprint, and the potential to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. 

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And I think there's a national security point that needs to be made here, too. Nuclear and geothermal are obviously very different technologies, but both potentially give countries more firm domestic power and less exposure to a volatile global fuel market. So they aren't just interesting technologies. They could also change the resilience characteristics of the energy system itself. And Derek, that brings this is something we could go back, come back to throughout the report. 

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Countries aren't all responding to this in the same way. The United States, China and Europe have very different resources, vulnerabilities and starting points. So let me end by taking this back up to the geopolitical level. Zooming out, are we actually watching the major powers build fundamentally different energy strategies? And what does that mean for geopolitical competition over the next decade? 

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So your first question, the answer is simple. Yes. And I think that's one of the most important conclusions from our report. China's building resilience through scale through enormous renewable deployment, nuclear batteries, electrification, domestic manufacturing and strategic 

stockpiles. While the US has a very different set of advantages, particularly abundant oil and gas, but also deep capital markets, technology and growing investment in nuclear, geothermal and grid modernization. 

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Now Europe has fewer domestic resources, so its challenge is different again. Europe has to build resilience through diversification, through interconnection efficiency and a stronger domestic energy system. And that's why I don't think the competition is simply about who produces the most energy. Increasingly, it's about who has the most options when the world becomes less predictable, because ultimately, energy resilience gives countries something much bigger than energy security. 

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It also gives countries greater freedom of action during a crisis. And I think that brings us right back to where we started. Resilience isn't about predicting exactly what the next shock will be. You probably can't. It's about having enough options in the system that when the next shock does come, you're able to respond. Well, thanks for this conversation and most of all, thanks for your collaboration on this report. 

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I've been a joy to do this and hopefully everyone learned something new. This material was prepared by the JPMorganChase center for geopolitics for general information purposes only, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument. This material is not a product of the firm's research department unless otherwise stated. 

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Any views or opinions expressed herein are solely those of the center for geopolitics, and may differ from the views and opinions expressed by the firm's research department or other departments or divisions of JPMorganChase and company or its affiliates. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, by JPMorgan Chase and company, or its affiliates and or subsidiaries do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. 

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Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material, and are subject to change without notice.

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Derek Chollet:

Hi, I'm Derek Chollet, Head of the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics. And thanks for joining us for another installment of "If You Could Only Choose One... Small Talks on Big Subjects," where I sit down with business leaders, political leaders, and thought leaders to talk about today's world, the challenges we face, and lessons for leadership. Today, I'm honored to be sitting down with Ambassador Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and the former governor of South Carolina. I hope you enjoy our conversation.

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'If You Could Only Choose One... Small Talks on Big Subjects with Nikki Haley, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Former Governor of South Carolina.'

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Now, Derek sits beside his guest, a dark-haired woman in a light blue skirt suit.

Derek Chollet:

Ambassador Nikki Haley, thanks for joining us.

Nikki Haley:

It's a pleasure. Thank you.

Derek Chollet:

What is the one geopolitical issue that you think will define this decade?

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'Nikki Haley, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.'

Nikki Haley:

I think we're right in it. I think what happens with the Iran war. You know, if... There's two things that could happen. If this goes the way that we all hope it would, you have an Iran that would be more pro-Western, they would realign, we wouldn't have the threats of nuclear proliferation, we wouldn't have the terrorist proxies, so many of those things, and we could actually see peace in the Middle East, which would open up so much opportunity. If this doesn't go well, then you have a regime that's even more motivated, more determined to really continue to have, try and have sovereignty over the strait, try and continue its nuclear production, and continue to threaten our allies around the world. So a lot could happen based on what happens in Iran.

Derek Chollet:

What's the moment in history in your mind that changed everything?

Nikki Haley:

We're about to have the 250th birthday of the United States. And you look at, you know, we were based on life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. And the fact that we wanted a democracy, wanted freedom, wanted to fight communism, wanted to fight fascism, I think not only did it allow freedom for people in the United States, but around the world.

Derek Chollet:

What's the one piece of advice that you've been given that has stuck with you throughout your career?

Nikki Haley:

Came from a fortune cookie. "Winners do what losers don't want to."

Derek Chollet:

That's a good one. And what's the one attribute in your mind that all leaders have?

Nikki Haley:

The ones that know how to push through the fear, that don't hesitate, but know that even when it's uncomfortable, you just have to move.

Derek Chollet:

And then what is it about the world today that gives you hope?

Nikki Haley:

You know, we always have this ability to self-correct. Even when we go through a roller coaster of emotions and different leaders and noisy times, we always come back to what's true. And I think that if we continue to stay on path, we'll come back to that self-correction and we'll continue on being the greatest country in the world.

Derek Chollet:

Well said. Ambassador Nikki Haley, thanks for joining us.

Nikki Haley:

Thanks so much.

Derek Chollet:

I appreciate it.

Nikki Haley:

Thank you.

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END

Derek:

Speaker Ryan, thanks so much for being with us.

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What is the one geopolitical issue that you think will define the next decade?

Paul Ryan:

I'd say it'd be the confluence of demographics and our social contracts. Every first-world country had, in the 20th century, put together a social contract with health and retirement security, a social safety net for the poor. They built it on a pay-as-you-go system. And with advanced countries, you have a demographic decline. You have baby boomers and far fewer people following them into the workforce. So when you have a pay-as-you-go system like we do, in our case, we're going from 40 million retirees to 77 million. And those programs grow much faster than our economy's ability to sustain them. So they're going bankrupt. So we have massive debt and massive debt crises coming, in not just America, but all the first-world countries. So we have to figure out how to tackle that. How do you have a social contract, health and retirement security, safety net for the poor, while not bankrupting your country? And how do you keep the promises to one generation without bankrupting the future of the economy of the next generation? That's the challenge. I think we can get through it, but that is the big challenge.

Derek:

Yeah, that's not just a challenge for the U.S.

Paul Ryan:

No, it's every country has this problem.

Derek:

So, what is the one moment in history that changed everything?

Paul Ryan:

I would say the Enlightenment in general. In my own view, Adam Smith in particular, with his view on economics, going from more of a feudal type of a system, to a system based on natural law and natural rights, how the collective action of individual pursuits is good for the common good, and how that worked. And the Enlightenment built the firmament, the foundation for natural law and natural rights, which has done an amazing thing to advance human conduct ever since.

Derek:

So, thinking back on your long career, what's the one piece of advice you got along the way that stuck with you?

Paul Ryan:

I got my mom. My dad died when I was a kid, so my mom was my mother and father. She said to me all the time, "You have two ears and you have one mouth. Use it in that proportion." Best advice I ever got.

Derek:

That's great advice. What is one attribute that all good leaders have?

Paul Ryan:

Well, the good ones have a moral code. They have a moral code that they explicitly declare and follow, and do their best to confine to. An explicit sense of morality and truthfulness, and a vision for how they apply that to the problems of their times.

Derek:

Well said. So looking out at the world today, there's a lot to be worried about and there's a lot of focus on risk. But what is the one thing out there in the world that gives you hope?

Paul Ryan:

I'd say our youth and freedom. You said one thing. So I teach economics at the University of Notre Dame. I have three college-age kids. So I've had this opportunity to spend a lot of time with kids in their early 20s. And we're raising amazing people in this country. So I'm very excited about the youth. And when you can combine that with freedom and the ability to have self-determination, the expression that comes with it, it gives me hope for the future that we will tackle the problems that they are inheriting that we aren't tackling.

Derek:

Well, that's great. Speaker Ryan, Paul, thanks for being with us.

Paul Ryan:

You bet. Thanks, Derek.

Derek:

Appreciate it.

Paul Ryan:

Nice to see you.

Derek:

Thanks.

END

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Derek Chollet:

Hi, I'm Derek Chollet, the head of the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics. And thanks for joining us for another installment of "If You Could Only Choose One," which are small talks on big subjects, where I sit down with business leaders, political leaders, and thought leaders to talk about today's world, the challenges we face, and lessons for the future. Today, I'm pleased to sit down with Mark Esper, the former U.S. Secretary of Defense. I hope you enjoy the conversation. Secretary Esper, thanks so much for being with us.

Mark Esper:

Great to be with you, Derek.

Derek Chollet:

So what is the one geopolitical issue that you think will define the next decade?

Mark Esper:

I think the one issue will be not necessarily geopolitical, but it will redefine geopolitics, will be the development and use of artificial general intelligence. First of all, it will displace a great many people from jobs, not just blue collar as in the past, but white collar as well. So I think that will reshape our economy. I =n the military space, which I know a little bit about, obviously, that level of intelligence will change how we fight, how we think about fighting, the weapons we develop, and how we employ them. And when you combine that level of intelligence with autonomy, you get a degree of robotics that will also change the battlefield. And then, of course, it will change us culturally in terms of our role in society day to day, and how we interact in our communities. And what's interesting about that is we don't know how it's going to play out.

Derek Chollet:

What is the one moment in history that changed everything?

Mark Esper:

I actually think it was the end of the Cold War. The wall falls in 1989, but the USSR officially collapses at the end of 1991. And what that did was it left us as the lone superpower in the world, and it changed our psyche. It also changed the strategic thinking of the world writ large, at least the Western democracy. So now we thought we were at the end of history, remember? No more wars, democracy will continue to grow and flourish, and at one point in time, everything will be great. It caused us to relax in ways we shouldn't have, so we decreased the military by 40-some percent. We cut important programs like foreign aid, public diplomacy. We didn't realize that countries, like certainly China, were gaming us, were thinking about how can we achieve some type of dominance in the decades ahead? They had a long-term plan, and we've seen it now fully developed here 30-some years later. As a result, we lost a lot of ground in terms of the growth of democracies, the ability to protect ourselves, and to preserve this Western liberal democracy built on rules and norms that served us so well in the decades after World War II.

Derek Chollet:

So you've served in the Army, you've been a leader in the private sector, in the government, serving at the highest levels. What is the one piece of career advice that you got that you've carried with you throughout your time in office?

Mark Esper:

It's the simplest but maybe the most difficult, and that is always do the right thing. If you have integrity as you do it, and you seem authentic to your people, to yourself, maybe more importantly, I think that will hold you true. And not just in your professional life but in your personal life as well.

Derek Chollet:

So perhaps related to that, what is one attribute that all good leaders have?

Mark Esper:

Most good leaders have a lot of energy, right? A lot of passion. That goes without saying. But I think the really good ones, the great ones, again, you have to have integrity. You have to be authentic to your people, to your cause. They have to trust you. They have to know you're being honest in your dealings, in your judgment, and that you have higher interests in mind, whether it's the company, the mission, and not yourself. So to me, it's integrity.

Derek Chollet:

Great. Well said. So we have a lot of bad news out there in the world today, but what's one thing out there in the world that gives you hope?

Mark Esper:

The United States of America. From our founding, we were always a very hopeful, optimistic, and adventuresome people. And I think despite all the political tensions these days, what's happening in the world with conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, maybe a new Cold War with China, I think what gives me hope is the American people, our ability to adapt and overcome, to rise to the occasion, and to surmount those differences and come together when the moment counts. That's been the history of our country for 250 years now. There's no reason to believe that it won't change. You have to believe that, particularly when times seem so tough.

Derek Chollet:

Well, Secretary Esper, Mark, thanks for being with us. Appreciate it.

Mark Esper:

Thank you, Derek.

END

Derek Chollet:

Hi, I'm Derek Chollet, head of the JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics. Thanks for joining us for another installment of If You Could Only Choose One, where I sit down with business leaders, political leaders, and thought leaders to talk about today's world, the challenges we face, and lessons for leadership. Today I'm honored to sit down with Mike Pompeo, the former U.S. Secretary of State and CIA Director. I hope you enjoy. Secretary Pompeo, great to see you. Thanks for being with us. It's great to be with you. So what is the geopolitical issue that to your mind will define the next decade?

Mike Pompeo:

So this big challenge for probably the next decade, probably beyond as well, is the challenge presented by the Chinese Communist Party under the leadership of Xi Jinping. They want to run the world their way. That ought to be unacceptable to all of us who believe in basic human rights, Western civilization, all the things that have been the hallmark of America's 250 years. And so they want to upend that, and we can't permit that to happen.

Derek Chollet:

What is the moment in history that changed everything?

Mike Pompeo:

Look, as a Christian, it's the birth of Jesus.

Derek Chollet:

Pretty big moment.

Mike Pompeo:

Pretty big moment. And then maybe when we celebrate Easter as well. So if you think of the institutions that arose out of World War II in the aftermath, the total victory that was achieved there, when again it was this moment we were struggling to figure out what the world would look like and what set of rules would operate to deliver basic food, sustenance, core human rights to billions of people, the men and women who sacrificed their lives during World War II, and then those who structured that post-World War II order did an enormous good for humankind.

Derek Chollet:

Well said. What is the piece of career advice you were given along the way that has stuck with you?

Mike Pompeo:

Oh my gosh, so many. Look, I've had some fantastic leaders that I've worked for, mentors. I've had some bad ones too. I learned from them as well.

Derek Chollet:

Exactly, exactly.

Mike Pompeo:

You know, really two things. One, this kind of came from my parents as well. I have seen successful lazy people, but not very many. So in the end, persistence and the capacity to really work hard against the problem set that you defined for yourself, the things you want to achieve, has always been the thing that I thought, you know, if I'm looking for someone, I wanted them to have integrity and corset as skills, but I'm looking for someone who's going to go run over. The other one was when I was a young lieutenant, brand new in the army, I had a platoon sergeant named Sergeant First Class Pretree, old codger, I say old, he's not, he was in his 40s, now I'm 60, he seems like a young man. But when I was 21, he seemed like a curmudgeon. And I showed up, he was my platoon sergeant, he said, "You know, Lieutenant," he saluted, I was the senior officer, he said, "You know, Lieutenant, you'll do really well if you'll just shut up for a while." And he was both right about that in the moment, but I really think from a leadership perspective, what he was saying is, "Listen, right, do spend a lot of your time listening and learning and absorb. You built the team, listen to the things that they have. You, in the end, you own it, you have the authority and the responsibility, accountability goes with that. But if you'll spend a little less time, you know, emitting and a little more time in receive mode, I think that has served me well.

Derek Chollet:

Good advice. So when we look out at the world, there's a lot of turmoil and it's easy just to focus on the downsides and the risks. But what's the thing out there that gives you hope?

Mike Pompeo:

You know when I get hope, we were just talking about this a little bit before, when I get a chance to go back and be out of the bubbles, whether it's in New York or Washington or wherever, and go back with folks who are living their lives, trying to make sure their kids and their grandkids all get to school and have the opportunity to work and all of those things. And they're in their church lives, their synagogues, wherever they have their faith. Those are the things that give me hope. I still see those basic things that make America so unique. Right? Somebody's going to go cook the chili dinner for the church cook-off or give a couple hundred bucks to the little league team so they can have new uniforms. Those foundational institutions that have served our country so well, they're still pretty damn robust. And so all the noise, all the politics that we see on our TVs every day, you know, most of they just get up and go to work and do what's right for their families. That's what reminds me that we're in a pretty good place in America. We're going to be just fine. If we can get the senior leaders to sort of figure this all out and stop shouting and start talking, I'm pretty confident we'll have another 250 great years.

Derek Chollet:

Great. Well, Secretary Pompeo, thanks for your time.

Mike Pompeo:

Thank you very much.

Derek Chollet:

It was wonderful to be with you.

Mike Pompeo:

Thank you.

END

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Derek Chollet:

Hi, my name is Derek Chollet, head of the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics, and welcome back to the series "If You Can Only Choose One: Small Talks on Big Subjects," where I ask prominent business leaders, political leaders, and thought leaders for quick advice on navigating global challenges and leading in complex times. Secretary Rice, thanks for being with us.

Condoleezza Rice:

Pleasure to be with you.

Derek Chollet:

If you could only choose one, what is the geopolitical issue that will define the next decade?

Condoleezza Rice:

The geopolitical issue that will define the next decade is the role of the United States of America and whether we remain fully engaged, whether we are willing to defend our values and our interests, and whether we understand that we have allies who need us.

Derek Chollet:

What is the one moment in history that changed everything?

Condoleezza Rice:

The moment in history that changed everything was the American Revolution. No one had ever thought that self-governance in the way that they conceived of it at the end of the 18th century was possible.

Derek Chollet:

What is the one piece of advice that you've been given that has stuck with you throughout your career?

Condoleezza Rice:

Throughout my career, I've been told to not be afraid to try things that are hard, to keep challenging myself, and even at my advanced age, I keep trying to find challenges.

Derek Chollet:

What is the one attribute that all good leaders have?

Condoleezza Rice:

Every good leader has to have integrity, because trust, as my good friend George Schultz once said, is the coin of the realm. Without trust, nothing is going to happen.

Derek Chollet:

What is the one thing that gives you hope?

Condoleezza Rice:

I'm hopeful because I get up every morning and teach at a university. And I get to teach these young people. They are the most public-minded generation that I've ever taught. They are going to change the world. We may have to slow them down a little bit, but young people, they give me hope.

Derek Chollet:

Secretary Rice, thanks for being with us.

Condoleezza Rice:

Pleasure to be with you.

END

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Derek Chollet:

Hi, I'm Derek Chollet, Head of the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics, and this is part of a new series called "If You Could Only Choose One," where I will be sitting down with business leaders, political leaders, and thought leaders to talk about today's world, the challenges we face, and lessons for leadership. I hope you'll enjoy it. Mr. Prime Minister, Matteo, thanks for being here.

Matteo Renzi:

It's a pleasure.

Derek Chollet:

What is the geopolitical issue that will define the next decade?

Matteo Renzi:

You can say artificial intelligence. You can say energy. You can say defense. I think the most important thing is education, because in the time of—in this crazy time, I believe the most important thing in geopolitics will be education.

Derek Chollet:

What is the moment in history that changed everything?

Matteo Renzi:

So, my opinion is very simple. In every time of the history, great things changed everything. This is a time of change, as always.

Derek Chollet:

You're still a young man, but you've lived a—

Matteo Renzi:

I was.

Derek Chollet:

—very long, professional life. And what is a piece of advice that has stuck with you throughout your career?

Matteo Renzi:

I'm 50 now. I was the youngest prime minister in the Italian history. I was the youngest president of European Council. I was the youngest mayor of the most beautiful city, in Florence. So, I was a lot of things. But in my career, the most important experience now is to be wise, prudent... No, it's not that. My suggestion to the young people is risk. Because a lot of people think, "Ah, if you don't risk, maybe you continue to be now prime minister." Yes, maybe it's true. But if I don't risk in my life, I didn't risk, I cannot became prime minister, mayor, etc. So, my suggestion is the most important thing, we have to decide when is the right time to risk. It's not easy, but it's great. And don't concern about the risks. Risk is a part of the life.

Derek Chollet:

And what is the attribute of leadership that you think is the most important?

Matteo Renzi:

Today I think the most important issues crucial for the leaders are three. The first is vision, because without vision, you can have a lot of money, you can have everything, power, but without vision, you're not a leader. The second is time. Too much leaders, particularly in Europe, risk to lose the chair, the job, because they haven't the time to organize. Vision, time... And the third is the human intelligence. We have a lot of people think about artificial intelligence and we discussed about artificial intelligence, but I think there is also a human intelligence, which is with the opposite of natural stupidity. Populism is the natural stupidity. I think we have human intelligence as the key point for a leader.

Derek Chollet:

And we live in a very complicated world with a lot of uncertainty. What gives you hope for the future?

Matteo Renzi:

I believe in the future. I think the future is the better place we have. If I look about the last 10 years when I was Prime Minister, I came here in Paris twice for two terrible attacks of terrorists. Now the terrorism is not so worried as today, as 10 years ago. I think artificial intelligence and innovation could help us to discover the possibility to fix a lot of things, particularly in healthcare, but also in bureaucracy, in productivity. So, I believe the innovation is good and the future will be better. Of course. It's not easy because a lot of politicians used to use the future as a threat. This is particularly true for populists. They think, "Oh, dark times will wait for us." I don't think that. I think that is a good time, but we have to believe in ourselves. And that is also the message I want to leave, particularly to young leaders.

Derek Chollet:

Mr. Prime Minister, Matteo, thanks for your time.

Matteo Renzi:

Thank you.

END

00:00:04:10 - 00:00:05:19

Hi, I'm Derek Chollet,

00:00:05:19 - 00:00:09:18

head of the JPMorganChase Center

for Geopolitics.

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And this is part of a new series called

if You Could Only Choose One...

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Where I'll be sitting down

with business leaders, political leaders,

00:00:16:19 - 00:00:19:16

and thought leaders to talk about

today's world,

00:00:19:16 - 00:00:23:02

the challenges

we face and lessons for leadership.

00:00:23:02 - 00:00:25:06

I hope you all enjoy it.

00:00:32:11 - 00:00:33:08

Prime Minister Blair.

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Thanks for joining us. Great to see you.

00:00:35:11 - 00:00:40:10

What is the one geopolitical issue that

you think will define the next decade?

00:00:40:10 - 00:00:44:09

Whether the West can get

its mojo back, whether America, Europe,

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the traditional allies

come together again in unison.

00:00:47:13 - 00:00:51:16

What is the moment in history

that changed everything?

00:00:51:16 - 00:00:54:01

Well, there are many moments,

but I think most recently

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the development of artificial intelligence

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and the ensuing technology revolution,

which will change everything.

00:00:59:20 - 00:01:03:13

What is the one piece of advice

that you have been given

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that stuck

with you throughout your career?

00:01:06:22 - 00:01:08:09

Be true to what you believe in

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because it may help you succeed or not,

00:01:11:07 - 00:01:14:09

but at least

you feel better about yourself.

00:01:14:09 - 00:01:17:04

What is the one attribute

that all good leaders have?

00:01:17:04 - 00:01:18:09

Clarity of direction.

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They know where they're going.

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And what is it about the world today

that gives you hope?

00:01:23:12 - 00:01:26:10

That basically, wherever you go

in the world, people want the same things.

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They want to be able to live in peace

and prosperity.

00:01:29:09 - 00:01:31:08

They want to know if they work hard,

they can do well

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and they want a government

underneath them, not on top of them.

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And that's the unifying theme right

across the world.

00:01:38:15 - 00:01:41:01

Mr. Prime Minister, thanks for joining us.

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Thank you.