Figure: International outflows have increased slightly since late 2025 but remain below the trend of domestic outflows:
A line plot displaying monthly outflow volume for midsize firms from January 2023 through June 2026. The horizontal axis represents time with labeled intervals, and the vertical axis shows indexed outflow volume ranging from approximately 60 to 160, with October 2024 set as the baseline index value of 100. Two lines track outflow patterns: a solid blue line representing outflows to the United States, and a dashed orange line representing international outflows.
Four key policy events are marked with vertical dashed gray lines: the general election occurring in November 2024, the announcement of tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico in February 2025, the announcement of universal tariffs in April 2025, and the strikedown of IEEPA tariffs by the U.S. Supreme Court in February 2026.
The line representing domestic outflows (solid blue) fluctuates within a relatively stable range between 90 and 102 throughout 2023 and most of 2024. Following the U.S. general election, the line displays steady growth until December 2025 when it reaches a value of 120. In the first months of 2026, the upward trend stops and the trend instead shows a slight decline, but this reverses in April, when the line starts to increase, ultimately reaching a value of 123.6 in June 2026.
The international line (dashed orange) starts at 98 in January 2023 and initially lies close to the line for domestic outflows, fluctuating between 92 and 101 throughout most of 2023 and 2024. After the 2024 general election, the international outflows series initially increases slightly, but dips again somewhat after the initial tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico are announced, creating a wedge between this line and the somewhat higher domestic outflows, which persists throughout the rest of the series. After April 2025, international outflows again begin to increase in parallel with the domestic outflows series, and by December 2025, they reach a value of 112. Similarly to domestic outflows, the index value for international outflows dips slightly in early 2026, but again increases to a value of 113 in June 2026, roughly a 10 percentage point gap to the domestic index values.
The figure is based on a balanced sample of midsize firms that are active the years 2023-2025, with the series displaying three-month rolling averages of monthly outflows to domestic and international partners. Both series are adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Consumer Price Index.
Source: JPMorganChase Institute.
