Insights

Breaking the Critical Minerals Chokepoints

April 2026

Executive Summary

One year after China’s export controls on medium and heavy rare earths highlighted the degree of concentration in global critical minerals markets, governments and industry have moved beyond diagnosis to action. The United States and a growing number of partners have deployed capital, industrial policy, trade tools, and new forms of international coordination to begin building greater resilience across key critical minerals supply chains. The direction of travel is clear: critical minerals are no longer being treated as a narrow industrial issue, but as a strategic economic and national security priority.

For global business, the key takeaway is that the challenge is evolving – and will get more difficult. The first phase of diversification focused on mobilizing individual projects. The next phase will be harder—and more consequential. Success will depend less on announcing new projects than on whether new processing, refining, and recycling capacity can become economically viable at scale.

All that is pushing policymakers toward a more interventionist toolkit, including coordinated procurement, stockpiling, and potentially common price-support mechanisms designed to encourage long-term investment and improve market resilience. The broader lesson extends beyond rare earths: similar dynamics—concentrated processing, weak market incentives for resilience, and growing state intervention—are already evident across other strategic supply chains. To help address these issues, JPMorganChase established the Security and Resiliency Initiative (SRI).

Key Takeaways 

  • Over the past year, the United States and other nations have taken unprecedented actions to stand-up alternatives to China’s critical minerals supply chain. A year on, these efforts show signs of promise, but underscore how much remains to be done.
  • We expect further action on midstream processing, maximizing use of coproducts and tailings, and recycling. There are several promising technologies that could make critical minerals refining more efficient.
  • It will take several years before concentration risk in critical minerals is meaningfully reduced – a reality that will shape the broader contours of the U.S. and other countries’ approach toward Beijing.
  • Countries’ experiences with critical minerals offer an important reminder that resilience does not require full self-sufficiency. In some cases, partial but durable diversification may be enough to materially reduce risk and improve flexibility.
  • The lessons learned from critical minerals have implications well beyond this market. As governments confront vulnerabilities in other strategic supply chains, the past year suggests they will increasingly turn to a similar mix of public-private partnership, targeted financing, trade tools, and international coordination.

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