Brink: A Year of Insights into a World on the Edge

Introduction

In May 2025, JPMorganChase launched the Center for Geopolitics with a clear mandate: to help our firm and our clients navigate the rapidly shifting geopolitical order. As our Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon asserted at the time, “Our largest risk is geopolitical risk.” From the outset, our goal was not to be a news digest, but to provide a lens for understanding the forces shaping our world and their implications for business, markets, states, and society.

As we enter our second year, we felt it was important to step back and reflect on our work. The accelerating pace and complexity of geopolitical change meant there was a lot to sort through. This anniversary book brings together the best of CfG’s analysis from our two flagship products for clients—our deep dive research reports and the Window on the World newsletter—organized around the seven main stories that defined our first year.

Taking this step back underscored that the current geopolitical moment has us on the brink of something completely different, presenting new risks and opportunities. That is the inspiration behind the book’s title, Brink.

Putting this book together was an equally gratifying and humbling exercise about what we got right and wrong: we nailed our Venezuela, Greenland, and trade predictions, but our August 2025 report on the Middle East put the odds of an Iran nuclear deal at 65% by the end of Q2 2025. Nobody bats 1000.

The process of compiling this book also helps us look ahead, underlining the growing interconnectedness of politics, security, and economics—how trade policy reverberates through alliances, how regional conflicts reshape global energy flows, and how technological advances like AI are redefining power and risk. It is also a reminder of the fantastic colleagues from around the world we have here at JPMorganChase, as so much of our work leverages the breadth and depth of our colleagues’ expertise across fields.

This exercise has allowed us to look across these stories and see several cross-cutting themes that will shape the shifting geopolitical order going forward:

• Fragmentation of the global order: Multilateralism is waning, replaced by regional and transactional alliances. States and markets are learning to hedge, diversify, and build new frameworks in response to increased uncertainty.
• Instability spills over: From Iran to Venezuela, leadership changes are roiling regional stability and global markets. Derek Chollet Managing Director and Head of the Center for Geopolitics JPMorganChase
• Technology and AI: These are not just economic drivers but strategic imperatives, shaping everything from defense to diplomacy.
• Energy and supply chains: The security of critical flows—oil, minerals, data—has become a central concern, with disruptions in one region reverberating globally.
• Rearmament: Rearmament is here to stay.

The U.S. and allied defense industrial bases face significant headwinds but recognize the challenge and are responding to meet the moment. The Center for Geopolitics would not exist without the vision and support of the firm’s leadership, the dedication of our founding team, and the collaboration of colleagues across JPMorganChase. We are deeply grateful to everyone who contributed their expertise, energy, and encouragement to bring the Center from concept to reality. In particular, we want to thank Peter Scher, Tim Berry, Steve O’Halloran, Rebecca Brown, Josie Bianchi, Shannon Boozman, and Kate Canter for their unwavering commitment and partnership.

We hope this retrospective will not only inform but provoke new questions. Our second year is shaping up to be even busier. As the geopolitical chessboard continues to shift, our commitment is to provide our clients with clarity and insight as we approach the brink of what’s next.

Read our anniversary book