The JPMorgan Chase Institute is focused on conducting original research, developing expert insights, framing critical economic problems, and convening policymakers, business leaders, and other decision makers to consider the most pressing economic issues.
The research agenda of the Institute extends across the portfolio of JPMorgan Chase’s lines of business and global reach. The Institute focuses its analyses on consumer finance and financial health, businesses large and small, financial markets, and other critical economic topics. Our timely data, combined with expert insights, are unique resources the JPMorgan Chase Institute will use to provide a comprehensive perspective on the complex inner workings of the economy to help policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity.
Growth, Vitality, and Cash Flows
High-Frequency Evidence from 1 Million Small Businesses
The small business sector makes important contributions to overall US economic growth, but the individual small businesses that comprise the sector are heterogeneous and face fundamentally different liquidity and cash flow management challenges as they attempt to survive and grow. This report by the JPMorgan Chase Institute introduces a newly augmented small business data asset to empirically address these questions. We built a sample of 1.3 million de-identified small businesses with Chase Business Banking accounts active between October 2012 and February 2018. The over 3.1 billion transactions we analyze from these businesses provide a novel view of daily revenues, expenses, and financing cash flows for individual small business. Our analyses shed light on the ways in which different segments of the sector contribute to the US economy, and how small businesses manage cash flows as they grow.
See the Findings in the report “Growth, Vitality, and Cash Flows”
FX Markets Move on Surprise News
Institutional Investor Trading Behavior around Brexit, the US Election, and the Swiss Franc Floor
This JPMorgan Chase Institute report is our first study based on a new, proprietary data asset composed of institutional investor transactions. We explore trading around three recent events that led to the largest one-day moves in the relevant currencies in the last 20 years: the Brexit referendum, the 2016 presidential election, and the decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to remove the Swiss Franc floor. The granularity of our transaction data allows us to provide an inside look at the trading behavior of various types of institutional investors during these three major market events and spotlight which investor sectors transferred risk during the price discovery process and which sectors waited until exchange rates had stabilized to transfer risk.
View Our Research “about how FX Markets Move on Surprise News”
Mortgage Modifications after the Great Recession
New Evidence and Implications for Policy
The aftermath of the Great Recession was a particularly difficult period for many homeowners. Unemployment increased and house prices declined, leaving many homeowners struggling to make their monthly mortgage payments and unable to sell their homes. In this report, the JPMorgan Chase Institute used data on mortgage modifications to measure the impact of reductions in monthly mortgage payments and mortgage principal on default and consumption. We found that payment reduction was effective in reducing default while principal reduction had no impact on default or consumption, and default was correlated with a considerable loss in income. Our analysis suggests that mortgage modification programs that are designed to target substantial payment reduction will be most effective at reducing mortgage default rates. Modification programs designed to reach affordability targets based on debt-to-income measures without regard to payment reduction or target a
specific LTV ratio while leaving borrowers underwater may be less effective at reducing defaults.
See the Findings “Mortgage Modifications after the Great Recession: New Evidence and Implications for Policy”
The Healthcare Spending of 2 Million US Families
The future of family-paid healthcare costs rests with healthcare policy choices currently being debated and out-of-pocket costs are a key piece of that picture. The JPMorgan Chase Institute set out to better understand out-of-pocket healthcare spending among US households. Building off a sample of 2.3 million de-identified core Chase customers aged 18 to 64 between 2013 and 2016, we created the JPMorgan Chase Institute Healthcare Out-of-pocket Spending Panel (JPMCI HOSP). We explored the levels, concentration, and growth of out-of-pocket healthcare spending and the implications of these spending trends for overall household financial health. The JPMCI HOSP provides a first-ever look into out-of-pocket healthcare spending for households on a month-to-month basis, at the state, metro, and county level, and as recent as 2016. In this report, we describe the creation of, and initial insights gleaned from, this new data asset.
See the Findings “Paying Out-of-Pocket: The Healthcare Spending of 2 Million US Families”
View Data Visualization
The Consumer Spending Response to Mortgage Resets
Microdata on Monetary Policy
The Great Recession brought to the forefront many unanswered questions about how monetary policy plays out at a microeconomic level, notably the question of how changes in the federal funds target rate impact personal consumption for individual households. In this report, the JPMorgan Chase Institute examines the credit card spending of a sample of US homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage to help answer this question. We find that homeowners responded by increasing their spending both in advance of the anticipated drop in their mortgage payment and in the post-reset period, despite a considerable drop in housing wealth. Our analysis further highlights how housing policy that influences the share of fixed-rate mortgages versus variable-rate mortgages can impact the overall effectiveness of monetary policy.
See the Findings “The Consumer Spending Response to Mortgage Resets: Microdata on Monetary Policy”
Shedding Light on Daylight Saving Time
Daylight Saving Time has been advanced as a policy that both saves energy and increases consumer spending. In this brief, the JPMorgan Chase Institute has explored whether or not the latter claim is supported by evidence. We found that daily card spending per capita in Los Angeles experienced a relative increase of 0.9 percent in the 30 days following the start of DST, and experienced a relative decline of 3.5 percent in the 30 days following end of DST.
Download the Report “Shedding Light on Daylight Saving Time”
Small Business Data Resources
Research-quality data on small businesses, including those from government, non-profit, and private sector sources, can be dispersed and difficult hard to find, particularly data from government, non-profit and private sector sources. We have collected information on data sources as an aid to other empirical researchers interested in better informing the small business sector.
View the List