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The JPMorgan Chase Institute Data Asset Sample
27M Chase accounts from which a sample of 2.5M is taken.
100,000 people out of the 2.5 million sample were randomly selected and the following four types of information were analyzed:
Monthly Balances
For 27 months on all Chase consumer products: checking account, savings account, credit card, mortgage and home equity loans and auto loans
135M Transactions
Information on amount, day and time, zip code, merchant and channel
Credit Bureau Data
Estimate of monthly payments as well as current outstanding balances and delinquency statistics for credit cards, mortgages and other lines of credit
Individual Characteristics
On an entirely de-personalized sample: gender, age and zip code
Criteria used to select the 2.5 million accounts include:
- Checking account in October 2012 to December 2014
- At least $500 of deposits every month
- At least five outflow transactions every month
- Chase credit card in October 2012 to December 2014
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Finding One
Monthly payroll payments from the median small employer business in our sample grew at an annualized rate of 8.5 percent per year.
Gains and Losses in FTEs
Changes in FTEs |
Percent of small businesses |
Lost more than 1 FTE |
15.5% |
Lost less than 1 FTE |
21.0% |
Gained less than 1 FTE |
31.7% |
Gained 1 to 2 FTEs |
11.4% |
Gained more than 2 FTEs |
20.4% |
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Finding Two
The typical employer small business had payroll outflows of $18,700, or 18 percent of all outflows.
Distribution of Cash Buffer Days by Type of Small Business
Percentile |
Cash buffer days for employer small businesses |
Cash buffer days for all small businesses |
25th percentile |
9 days |
13 days |
Median |
18 days |
27 days |
75th percentile |
35 days |
62 days |
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Finding Three
Share of employer small businesses
Stable payroll |
38.2% |
Unstable payroll |
61.8% |
Employer small businesses with stable payroll experience:
- Small changes: Businesses with small changes only experience payroll changes that are less than hiring or firing one employee.
Employer small businesses with unstable payroll experience:
- Sustained gains and/or losses: Businesses with sustained gains appear to be steadily hiring new employees and growing their workforce. Those with sustained losses appear to be losing employees and shrinking their workforce.
- Spikes and/or dips: Businesses with spikes or dips have at least one instance of a large change in payroll that is quickly reversed. These businesses can also experience small changes and sustained gains and losses.
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Finding Four
Low Volatility: 25 percent of small businesses experience payroll changes no more volatile than the small changes pattern.
Illustrative small changes pattern |
Month |
Number of FTEs |
Feb |
4 |
Mar |
3.85 |
Apr |
4.2 |
May |
4.6 |
Jun |
4.3 |
Jul |
4.6 |
Aug |
4.8 |
Sept |
5.1 |
Oct |
4.7 |
Typical Volatility: Most small businesses experienced payroll changes similar to the gains and losses pattern.
Illustrative gains and losses pattern |
Month |
Number of FTEs |
Feb |
4 |
Mar |
4.4 |
Apr |
4.8 |
May |
3.75 |
Jun |
3.9 |
Jul |
4 |
Aug |
5.05 |
Sept |
4.9 |
Oct |
4.7 |
High Volatility: 25 percent of small businesses experienced payroll changes at least as volatile as the spikes and dips pattern.
Illustrative spikes and dips pattern |
Month |
Number of FTEs |
Feb |
4 |
Mar |
3.6 |
Apr |
4.05 |
May |
5.8 |
Jun |
4.3 |
Jul |
4.25 |
Aug |
3.2 |
Sept |
5 |
Oct |
4.7 |
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Finding Five
Median cash buffer days by payroll volatility type
Payroll pattern |
Median Cash Buffer Days |
Spikes (unstable payroll) |
20 |
Small changes (stable payroll) |
19 |
All employer small businesses |
18 |
Sustained losses (unstable payroll) |
17 |
Both spikes and dips (unstable payroll) |
17 |
Sustained gains (unstable payroll) |
16 |
Combined sustained gains and losses (unstable payroll) |
16 |
Dips (unstable payroll) |
15 |
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Data
Small Businesses
We select a sample of small businesses with the following characteristics:
- Hold Chase Business Banking accounts
- End-of-day combined balances do not exceed $20 million each day
- Do not identify with more than a single address and/or a single industry
Core Metropolitan Employer Businesses
We define core businesses as those businesses that have financial activity that indicates they are not seasonal businesses, hobby businesses, small office/home office businesses (SOHOs), micro businesses, etc.
- For at least five of nine months, at least $500 in outflows and 10 transactions
- At least one inflow and outflow in each month
- At least one and fewer than 500 employees in each payroll period
- Are located in Metropolitan areas where Chase has a representative footprint
Selected Key Industries
The businesses we study are part of 12 selected key industries that comprise key elements of the small business sector:
- Construction
- Health Care Services
- High-Tech Manufacturing
- High-Tech Services
- Metal & Machinery
- Other Professional Services
- Personal Services
- Real Estate
- Repair & Maintenance
- Restaurants
- Retail
- Wholesalers
Together, these 12 industries capture 73 percent of for-profit employer small firms and 65 percent of for-profit small business employment.
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
© 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.