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JPMorgan Chase Institute's Local Consumer Commerce Index Shows a 1.4 Percent Increase in Consumer Spending Growth

High income consumers continue to contribute to growth, while older consumers (55+) subtract from growth.

September 14, 2017 (Washington, D.C.) – Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI) for May 2017, which showed positive consumer spending growth in 10 of the 15 US cities analyzed. Overall, year-over-year consumer spending growth increased by 1.4 percent in May.

Notably, Denver had the fastest growth rate of all the LCCI cities at 9 percent, and San Francisco was the only city to have a higher year-over-year growth rate in May 2017 compared to April 2017.

Data visualization of the changes in local consumer spending growth over the last 24 months can be found online.

This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual, de-identified financial transactions, the LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic view of the financial health of the U.S. consumer and the vibrancy of the places where businesses operate.

“Following two months of above-average year-over-year growth in local consumer spending, we saw continued growth in May, though at a slower rate” said Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute. “This positive growth pattern—evident since February 2017—is encouraging and a sharp contrast to the latter half of 2016.”

Additional key highlights from the latest Index include:

  • Spending on other services contributed 1 percentage point to year-over-year growth in May 2017, the largest growth contribution of all product types in May 2017.
  • Consumers between the ages of 55 and 64 broke their three month streak of non-negative contributions to year-over-year growth, subtracting 0.5 percentage points from growth in May 2017.
  • Consumers in the bottom income quintile saw the largest growth contribution amongst all income quintiles, contributing 0.7 percentage points.
  • Spending from consumers in the same metro area as the merchant (but not the same neighborhood) contributed 1.1 percentage points in May 2017, while a decline in spending from consumers that reside outside of the metro area subtracted 0.1 percentage points from year-over-year growth.
  • Small businesses contributed 0.4 percentage points to year-over-year growth in May 2017, the 4th consecutive month of sustained positive growth.

The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer spending.

  • The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported measures of how consumers think they spend.
  • The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
  • The LCCI also presents a more granular view of local consumer commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income, business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the location of the business. For each lens, we show how different segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
  • The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.

Each release of the LCCI describes the economic picture of local communities and provides a powerful tool for city development officials, businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.


About the JPMorgan Chase Institute

The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good. Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts, timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy, frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers. For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.