April 27, 2017 (Washington, DC) – Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI) for January 2017, which showed that all 15 of the US cities analyzed had lower year-over-year consumer spending growth rates in January compared to December 2016, and only four had positive growth rates. Overall, year-over-year consumer spending declined by 0.7 percent in January. However, as in May 2016, much of this decline can be attributed to “day of week” (DOW) effects, as January 2016 had an extra Friday and Saturday.
Data visualization of the changes in local consumer spending growth over the last 24 months can be found online.
Restaurants experienced a rare decline in January 2017, subtracting 0.2 percentage points from growth. Large business growth remained positive at 1.1 percentage points, but that growth was more than offset by declines in small and medium size business growth, which decreased by 0.4 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively.
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual, de-identified financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic view of the financial health of the US consumer and vibrancy of the places where businesses operate.
“Although January 2017 experienced a decline in growth, fuel spending has increased for two consecutive months,” said Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute. “This is a marked departure from a lengthy period of negative growth in virtually every month over more than two years. This uptick in fuel spending moderated an otherwise fairly general decline in local consumer commerce.”
Additional key highlights from the latest Index include:
- New York slowed from a 2 percent growth rate in December 2016 to a 0.3 percent growth rate in January 2017. Despite this contraction, New York retained the highest growth rate of all large LCCI cities.
- All age groups, with the notable exception of consumers aged 65 experienced lower growth contributions in January than December
- All income groups had lower growth contributions in January 2017 relative to December 2016.
- Fuel spending continued to pick up from its trend breaking growth contribution of 0.1 percentage points in November 2016, contributing 0.5 percentage points to growth in January 2017. As before, this is largely an effect of rising fuel prices.
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer spending.
- The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported measures of how consumers think they spend.
- The LCCI provides timely on spending in 15 major metropolitan areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
- The index also presents a more granular view of local consumer commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income, business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the location of the business. For each lens, we show how different segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
- The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have not been well understood by other sources. These include sectors such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI describes the economic picture of local communities and provides a powerful tool for city development officials, businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.
About JPMorgan Chase Institute
The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to delivering -rich analyses and expert insights for the public good. Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts, timely , and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique proprietary , expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy, frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers. For more information visit: www.jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.