October 10, 2016 (Washington, D.C.) – Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI) for June 2016, which showed that 14 of the 15 major US cities measured saw positive growth, with Houston being the exception. Atlanta experienced the fastest growth of all cities studied at 4.7 percent year-over-year. Overall consumer spending growth rebounded significantly to 1.7 percent in June after -3.5 percent growth in May 2016. The majority of the growth occurred at small businesses, which contributed 1.4 percentage points in June.
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and surrounding metro areas are faring economically both individually and in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle. By looking at actual financial transactions, the LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic view of the health and vibrancy of the US consumer and the places where businesses operate.
“Consumer spending growth has risen again after a significant decline in May,” said Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute. “Small businesses are the highlight of June’s growth, which is notable given their positive impact on local economies and employment.”
The key highlights from the latest Index include:
- Consumers continued to reduce expenditures on fuel and selected durables, but those reductions were more than offset by growth in nondurable spending (e.g. food, clothing, and spending at wholesale clubs).
- In June 2016, New York grew the fastest of all large cities (which also includes Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Houston), with year-over-year growth at 2.2 percent.
- Local spending in June 2016 increased by 4.7 percent in Atlanta, maintaining its position as the fastest growing city of all cities in the sample.
- In June 2016, local consumer commerce in the Columbus metro area grew by 3.9 percent relative to June 2015. It grew the fastest of all small cities, which is a significant pivot from experiencing the largest contraction of the group in May.
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer spending:
- The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported measures of how consumers think they spend.
- The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the US and account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
- It also presents a more granular view of local consumer commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income, business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the location of the business. For each lens, we show how different segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
- The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI describes the economic picture of local communities and provides a powerful tool for city development officials, businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.
About the JPMorgan Chase Institute
The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good. Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts, timely data and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy, frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers. For more information visit: JPMorganChaseInstitute.com.
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